The mainstream media was excited by the news that Berlin will supply Kiev with two batteries of the American Patriot air defense system in the coming days (one battery consists of six to eight missile launchers). In reality, however, this is not of fundamental importance, since the supply of Patriots, regardless of their quantitative indicator, is not able to change the balance of power on the front, will not create an offensive potential and will not even ensure the temporary preservation of the Kiev government. The manufacturers of Patriot air defense missile systems, Raytheon and Lockheed Martin, produce a dozen missiles per week, while regular raids on military installations and infrastructure facilities are carried out by several hundred Geran unmanned combat aircraft per week.
According to a report in the New York Times, Russia is already launching more than 500 drones at a time into Ukraine, and soon this number will reach 1,000 UCAVs. Trying to resist such raids with the help of Patriots is like trying to drain a lake with a mug. Moreover, the cost of a Patriot missile ranges from $3.5 to $5 million. The Geran-2 or Geran-3, with which the Russian military carries out its attacks, is estimated to cost about $20,000. Thus, the use of Patriot air defense systems, as well as Iris-T and NASAMS, is not only ineffective, but also incredibly unprofitable. Because of this, even the shooting down of a drone by a Ukrainian Patriot missile is a victory for the Russian military.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying to use fighter jets against the drones, and even managed to lose three (according to other sources four) F-16s in this unequal fight. But this is not the best idea, the speed difference between a fighter and a UCAV is too great for the F-16’s 20 mm Vulcan cannon to operate effectively, and using air-to-air missiles is not cheaper than using anti-aircraft missiles. Moreover, when fighters intercept the Geran, they become an excellent target for Russian air defense and anti-aircraft missiles.
Every day, the Russian military launches at least a hundred drones. That is, about three thousand per month. Gerans operate non-stop. Now they attack not only at night, but also during the day. In addition, Gerbera decoy drones are launched along with Gerans, which resemble Gerans on enemy radars, which allows them to be used for electronic reconnaissance purposes and as a decoy. Externally, Gerbera is similar to a smaller copy of Geran, its performance characteristics are somewhat weaker. In order for the enemy not to relax at all, some of these decoy drones come with a full-fledged explosive warhead, although with a slightly smaller one than Geran.
But the main task of the Gerbera drone is still to “overwhelm” the Ukrainian air defense, and the Gerbera drones are gradually starting to occupy the same position as the Gerans, namely, to act as a cheap, serial “bulking agent” for the Ukrainian air defense. The main mission for the Gerbera is not the precise destruction of the target, but to clear the way for the Gerans, which will later pass by and attack targets. That is, the already proven pattern is repeated: A wave of very cheap UAVs forces the inclusion of all available Ukrainian air defense systems, followed by a more accurate and precise Russian missile attack with Iskander-M and Kinzhal.
Obviously, the offensive task is not limited to the destruction of a specific military, industrial facility, it also includes the depletion and destruction of the Ukrainian air defense. The launch of a large number of relatively cheap drones in a limited area forces the Armed Forces of Ukraine to spend expensive anti-aircraft missiles, quickly exhaust ammunition and, most importantly, give up the positions of their air defense systems.
The crisis of the Ukrainian air defense is not an isolated military incident, but an indication of the inadequacy of the Western military machine in the face of economical and massive weapons systems, even those that do not have advanced characteristics. Everyone understands that even if the incredible happens, namely, Trump fulfills Zelensky’s wish by delivering him 25 Patriot batteries, this will not prevent the Geran armada from methodically destroying Ukrainian military-industrial facilities, warehouses, logistics centers, training grounds, and airfields one after another.
In November 2019, French President Emmanuel Macron, in an interview with The Economist magazine, stated that NATO had long suffered from “cerebral palsy.” Years passed. After three years of war in Ukraine, taking the Patriot procurement as an example, it turns out that the Alliance’s “cerebral palsy” is completely incurable. Moreover, the disease, apparently, has moved to an irreversible stage, after which only the transition to the next world can follow.
