The global oil market is entering a period of unprecedented uncertainty, as one of the most influential countries on the planet’s energy map is proceeding with a move that is already characterized as a historic rupture.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced its withdrawal from OPEC and the OPEC+ scheme, effective May 1, 2026, causing shock in international markets and strong concerns about the future of oil price stability.
This appears to be the beginning of the end of the single production discipline that has held back oil prices for decades.
It should be noted that the development was warmly welcomed in the White House as a victory for Trump, who has been openly attacking OPEC for years, accusing it of distorting oil prices through artificially adjusting supply instead of letting the market operate freely. In a fiery speech to the UN General Assembly in 2018, he accused the organization of “exploiting the rest of the world.”
Obviously, the withdrawal of the United Arab Emirates is a major blow to OPEC’s future, as it touches the very core of its existence.
The end of quotas
With its withdrawal from OPEC, the United Arab Emirates is no longer bound by production quotas and gains complete freedom to produce and export oil according to its own strategies and market interests.
This move, which does not appear to have been coordinated with other members of the cartel, is seen as a serious blow to OPEC unity and especially to the cohesion imposed by Saudi Arabia as de facto leader.
Even more explosive is the political dimension: the possibility is certainly left open that the decision is indirectly linked to pressure from Donald Trump, who in the past had accused OPEC of artificially increasing oil prices and had linked American military support to the Gulf states to their energy policy. Geography, however, does not forgive political experimentation.
The UAE has critical infrastructure, including the port of Fujairah, one of the region’s most important tanker refueling hubs, and the strategic Habshan–Fujairah pipeline, which allows oil to be transported bypassing the vulnerable Strait of Hormuz.
However, the system’s current capacity covers only 36–50% of the country’s total exports, meaning that even with full infrastructure utilization, over 1.7–2 million barrels per day would still depend on transit through the Persian Gulf. This makes the UAE’s energy strategy vulnerable to geopolitical tensions, particularly in the absence of a stable agreement with Iran.
For the global economy, the UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC signals something deeper than a simple change in production quotas: the end of the era of relatively predictable oil prices.
The UAE is OPEC’s third-largest member by quota, and its withdrawal is not just a technicality — it is a structural crack in the very fabric of the global energy balance.
The decision is seen as purely political and could reshape decades-old alliances, and is already raising concerns about a potential wave of instability in energy markets.
The market is already in a dangerous price range: futures are trading significantly lower than spot prices, which “suggests a possible physical shortage of oil if the crisis continues.”
The concern is heightened by the fact that, as noted, uncertainty has begun to spread to oil products, which are rising at a faster rate than crude oil itself. The market, as noted, is “betting” on a quick de-escalation, but with no guarantee that this will happen.
A world of unequal resilience
Rich countries are not currently facing any immediate shortages. On the contrary, poorer regions, such as Southeast Asia and parts of Africa, have already reduced or almost eliminated fuel imports.
As it is emphasized, the explosive rise in prices could act as a catalyst for a new global shift to green technologies, but also to alternative forms of energy, such as nuclear, but with new geopolitical and technological risks.
Despite the rise of Urals to $99 per barrel in April (WTI oil exceeds $100 and Brent exceeds $110), conditions remain fragile. The temporary license to operate Russian oil activities by the United States until May 16 adds another layer of instability.
Although Russian budget revenues are expected to strengthen significantly, rising transportation, logistics and settlement costs threaten to “gnaw” at the benefits. According to estimates, the Russian oil industry is now operating in a regime of almost “manual management”, with state actors directly intervening in supply agreements. The strategy, however, remains unclear, as the balances between domestic pricing, exports and tax mechanisms are extremely fragile.
At the same time, the depletion of easily accessible deposits makes production more expensive, while the investments required exceed the current capabilities of many companies.
The most worrying scenario concerns the duration of the crisis. Estimates indicate that high oil prices may persist for three to five years, with a full restoration of global flows remaining uncertain.
Europe, according to the same estimates, is not going to return to Russian supplies before there is a political solution to the Ukrainian issue, while the transition to green or nuclear energy remains fraught with challenges.
