When, in March 1945, Hitler listened with his mouth open to GES Chief Heinz Guderian protesting his wrong decisions, he angrily told him: “General, your nerves are rotten. Take a few weeks off…”. He then replaced him. But is Ukraine experiencing a similar situation today?
As is well known, Lieutenant General Valery Zaluzny was removed from the post of Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and was replaced by General Oleksandr Surskyi.
The big and perhaps unexpected change comes after the resounding failure of the infamous Ukrainian counter-offensive, which led to huge losses for the Ukrainian Army. At the same time, Western and mainly American aid is faltering, mortally squeezing the decision-makers in Kiev.
Zaluzny, despite the fact that he enjoyed high popularity among the people and respect among the officer ranks, did not agree with President Volodymyr Zelensky’s aggressive approach to the front. Inefficient mobilization and whatever else the Ukrainian president advocated and demanded could not guarantee victory, and Zaluzny knew it.
But the problem for the Ukrainians is that his replacement may not be governed by the same pragmatism, while he seems not to care so much about losses in order to serve his plans.
Western sources and media themselves admit that with this choice, Zelensky can be proven wrong.
The “meat grinder” Bakhmut
About a decade ago, Sirsky was one of the military leaders who tried to subdue eastern Ukraine, without any success in 2014-2015.
Together with the then Chief of the GES of Ukraine they saw their forces pushed back and defeated at the Battle of Debaltseve in the winter of 2015. He was then defeated at the Battle of Vulirsk, while failing to recapture Lohvynove.
His performance, however, may be even worse in the current war against Russia. He was defeated in the battles of Soledar in January 2023, while in the most important battle of Bahamut he failed miserably.
In particular, in early 2023, Sirsky led Ukraine’s defense of the eastern city of Bakhmut, where thousands of soldiers from both sides were killed in one of the bloodiest battles of the war so far.
But according to military analysts, they question whether the battle for a destroyed city was worth so many dead and wounded. Of course, Sirsky claimed that the defense he countered at Bakhmut had harmed Russia’s overall war effort by hooking Wagner’s mercenaries.
General Sirskii has a reputation for being willing to engage the enemy, even if it costs him dearly in personnel and equipment. The general in question is considered a divisive figure who provokes strong reactions from officers. Some praise his professionalism, others say he intimidates his subordinates and rules with fear.
In the bloody 10-month battle in Bakhmut, Sirsky made decisions that led to heavy casualties and the decimation of some of Ukraine’s most experienced brigades, soldiers said. According to them, he should have ordered an orderly withdrawal of forces from the city months before Russia captured it. These troops, if withdrawn in such a move, could save combat-experienced forces to participate in the 2023 counterattack.
None of this officer’s successes in the area yielded anything substantial and some of the lands he had recaptured were subsequently lost. That is, a hole in the water.
Ukrainian troops insisted that Sirsky’s appointment as supreme commander bodes ill for the war. The soldiers who criticized him did not hesitate to say that he has sacrificed troops ruthlessly. Some have dubbed him “the butcher”.
He is certainly not Gunderian
But President Zelensky chose such a personality to lead his captured army, likely to question the goals of his president, while he should learn to tell the truth to his political superiors. It is precisely what Hitler detested in Guderian in World War II, one of the ablest military brains of the era.
According to experts, the reorganization Zelensky is attempting will also cause disruption as officers move to new positions in the chain of command.
What army will he fight with?
It is recalled that Zaluzny was “caramed” with one complaint: he refused Zelensky to order a proper mobilization that would provide a satisfactory number of 500,000 troops at the front. How will the new commander manage with such a small army?
Sirskii himself had agreed with Zaluzny that technology would likely play an important role if Kiev was to win the war. However, he probably has to carry a small basket. As with other plans formulated around the use of “wunderwaffen”, i.e. game-changing superweapons such as ATACMS, not much will change.
The Ukrainians already have an army familiar with superweapons and plenty of personnel to use them, something the West’s Leopard and Abrams alone cannot make up for.
At the same time, Ukrainian recruits tend to be poorly trained, creating a dilemma about whether to send someone immediately to the battlefield when they need reinforcements – even though they are likely to be injured or killed – because they lack the expertise. . Even if the new commander receives the new weapons that Zelensky requests from the West, how will they be used without trained and adequate personnel?
“The basis of everything is the lack of people,” Sirskii has also said.
Indeed, Zaluzny’s nerves may not have been in the best place with Zelesny in charge, but it’s worth wondering what the new manager can achieve. But probably only Zelensky has “made up” his reasons.
