The morning of Saturday 7/10/2023 found southern Israel at the center of a massive attack by the military wing of the Hamas organization by land, air and sea. Hamas fighters backed by a barrage of rockets crossed the wall that separates the Gaza Strip from the rest of Israel, attacked and captured military installations near Gaza and Israeli army outposts, destroying tanks and armored vehicles and seizing military vehicles and weaponry. At the same time, a few dozen Israeli soldiers and civilians are arrested and taken to Gaza. The success of such a large-scale operation by Hamas was due to the strategic surprise it achieved against Israel’s forces and the failure of its intelligence services to provide correct information to friendly forces.
This operation is capable of blowing up the entire area. In principle, it directly affects the rapprochement negotiations between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the State of Israel for a peace process that would end 80 years of conflict between Israelis and Arabs. Of course, this would not be in the interest of Iran, where after the agreement the Sunni monarchies of the Gulf would turn against Shiite Iran to settle their maritime disputes.
In this way, Iran, using the Palestinian organization, drove a wedge into the entire peace process in the region. For Iran, any good or bad outcome of the conflict that begins today can only bring profit. Either the whole operation ends immediately with all sides coming to the negotiating table for a comprehensive Middle East solution, or the operations of the next few days open the bag of Aeolus with Arab countries rushing to aid the Palestinians, which means straight military confrontation with Israel, will only mean gain for Iran and its allies.
In the first case, Iran will also participate in the talks, while in the second case, it will see its rivals weakened by the confrontation between them. Iran is a well-known opponent of Israel and every now and then its leadership indulges in serious anti-Semitic statements shouting war cries that go so far as to wipe the state of Israel off the map. On the other hand, Iran’s nuclear program causes serious concerns not only in Israel itself but also in the rest of the Gulf states and especially in Saudi Arabia, raising the bar in their geopolitics against the spheres of influence in the other states of the region (please also read the analysis titled “Hamas execute civilians inside Israel to destroy the Peace agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia“).
The next twenty-four hours are very crucial for the turn that developments in the Middle East may take. In reality, Hamas does not have the military power to openly threaten Israel, and the timing of this attack is important. It is the 50th anniversary of the 1973 war, and the Palestinian leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniya, has very cleverly, if not cunningly, used this date to call on the Arab world to rise up against the oppression of the Muslim Brotherhood by the state of Israel.
The truth is that the everyday ordinary and peaceful people who live in the Gaza Strip are under a hostage regime surrounded by walls and barbed wire. Gaza is the latest act in a series of tragic mistakes made over time by the great powers drawing the borders of the states of the region from the fall of the Ottoman Empire until today. The other big issue in the region is Kurdish where a people of 40 million people is also without an autonomous state and its physical space is occupied by four countries.
So far only Iran has openly sided with Hamas, while the West Bank Palestinian Authority, which has been involved in talks with the Israelis and Saudis, has rather numbly referred to the Palestinians’ right to self-defense.
On the other hand, Turkey, which raised the finger as a protective force for the Palestinians in the face of the rapprochement with Israel and the possibility of Israeli gas being transported through Turkey to the European market, initially recommended restraint between the sides and only after internal pressures did it support the Palestinians.
Also, this attack is rallying the Israeli people around the face of Prime Minister Mr. Netanyahu, who in the past period has been facing fierce internal criticism for bills he brought to vote that were opposed by a large portion of the Israeli people.
The attack and occupation of Israeli lands and cities effectively brought the country into a state of war and the government called up 100,000 reservists.
This number is indicative of both the seriousness of the situation and the severity of the reaction that Israel will have during the counterattack. Today’s attack essentially provided the alibi that Israel may have been looking for to enter Gaza and completely destroy, as far as possible, Hamas. Moreover, in Mr. Netanyahu’s speech, the magnitude of the response that Israel intends to give was perceived. Today, in the eyes of international public opinion, all countries condemn the unprovoked attack, but in the long run, and depending on the effects of the attack on the local population, this can backfire. We also have to wait to see what attitude Hezbollah will take and whether it will participate in the war against the Israelis by opening a new front in the north.
Apparently Hamas is waiting for Israel’s reaction and it remains to be seen if its defense is as well organized as its current attack. It is obvious that he is hoping for the common feeling of the Muslim peoples of the region which can pressure the Arab states to help against Zionist Israel. What is certain is that if the Israeli army enters the Gaza Strip there will be many dead on both sides. An important role in changing international public opinion and any practical support for the Palestinians from Arab countries will be the collateral losses of women and children who are usually the tragic victims of these conflicts.
In reality the Prime Minister of Israel is in a difficult situation because he must first ensure that the territories are cleared of Hamas fighters and maintain security and at the same time teach a strong lesson to the Hamas leadership by regaining the pride of the state of Israel without to cause the Arab states to rally against him thus avoiding the exportation of the confrontation with further escalation of the conflicts.
The next few days and hours will be critical. It remains to be seen what the UN Security Council will decide today as well as Israel’s military response. In the first phase, whether Hezbollah will carry out its threat of involvement in the conflict, and in the second phase, whether Iran will be able to support Hamas with equipment and Hezbollah, if it joins the war, in order to inflict greater losses on the Israeli army.
