The use of long-range self-propelled artillery by the Russians in the offensive operations they will carry out will result in the manifestation of direct anti-artillery fire against the Ukrainian counterpart and the sufficient support in place and time of the Mechanized and Armored Brigades of the Russian army.
The two (2) prongs of the Russian plan
The above seems to be verified by the developments on the front of military operations from then until today, while in a recent analysis we pointed out that we are now very close in time to the implementation of the 2nd leg of the Russian plan, according to which:
The 1st part of this, provided for the observance of a strong defensive posture in the South with the aim of absorbing the offensive power of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and inflicting significant losses on them.Then as a 2nd leg it foresees the gathering of very strong reserves to launch a large-scale attack on the weakened Ukrainian army with the aim of crushing it.
Russia is creating five new Brigades with modern self-propelled heavy artillery
The Russians say they have developed a self-propelled gun that can compete with NATO-standard artillery. Russian media reports that the Russian military is currently planning to establish five heavy artillery brigades.
These brigades will be equipped with heavy self-propelled guns such as the 203 mm 2S7 Pion or 2S7M Malka, as well as self-propelled mortars, namely the 240 mm 2S4 Tulpan. Meanwhile, the formation of the 17th brigade is underway in the Leningrad region of the Russian Federation.
This brigade will be equipped with large caliber artillery systems removed from storage bases.
The necessity of long-range self-propelled artillery for the Russian army
For its part, Russia acknowledges the real failure of the Koalitsiya-SV self-propelled artillery unit, falling short of its advertised range of up to 70 km, in ongoing state tests and its absence on the front line.
In addition, Lancet UAVs are not 100% effective, and rocket artillery systems as a relief replacement for self-propelled artillery did not yield the expected results.
At the same time, the Pion 203 mm artillery units can compete with any NATO 155 mm standard artillery systems due to their impressive range, which can be extended up to 40 km. This range becomes paramount in combat against enemy artillery.
In addition, the 2C4 Pion self-propelled mortars, with a range of up to 20 km, could also pose a threat to the Armed Forces of Ukraine actively participating in operations in the South and near Bakhmut.
According to The Military Balance 2023, the Russian army’s reserves may include about 260 units of 2S7 Pion and about 200 units of 2S4 Tulpan.”
Mode of action – impact on business
The above move of creating five (5) new Russian Brigades equipped with long-range self-propelled guns is a clear indication of the Russian military’s preparations for a large-scale attack against Ukraine, something we have been pointing out for months.
The use of long-range self-propelled artillery by the Russians in the offensive operations they will conduct, will result in the manifestation of direct anti-artillery fire against the Ukrainian counterpart and the sufficient support in time and place of the Mechanized and Armored Brigades of the Russian army, while limiting the their losses.
Our assessment is that these Brigades will be used in a second year, after the bulk of the Russian towed artillery has previously succeeded in breaching the Ukrainian defensive position, through which the Russian Armored and Motorized Formations will pass that will succeed in expanding of the enclave and the fragmentation of the site, to be followed by exploitation and pursuit of the Ukrainian defense forces.
The above large-scale offensive action of the Armored and Mechanized of the Russian army will be closely supported by most or all of the five (5) new Russian Brigades equipped with heavy self-propelled guns such as the 2S7 Pion or the 2S7M Malka caliber 203 mm, as well as mortars, namely the 2S4 Tulpan with a caliber of 240 mm.
