On Friday, the Ukrainian military revealed that the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) had finally broken through the front line of Russia’s famous main defense line in the Zaporizhia region. In the West they hope this will facilitate a faster penetration deeper into Russia’s defenses. A careful analysis of the tactical situation, however, reveals that the situation for the UAF remains precarious.
Ukraine scores a rare victory
The specific area of penetration in the first zone of Russia’s main defense system is located just east of the village of Rabotino, which was recently captured by Ukraine, and about three kilometers west of the village of Verbova. The first problem for Ukraine is the time it took to get to the forefront and the resources it took to do so.
The UAF (Ukrainian Armed Forces) launched its attack on June 5 and it took almost three months to reach the first major line of defense. Ukraine suffered significant losses in personnel and equipment during the first three months of this operation, particularly in Western-supplied armored personnel carriers. The last time the West promised large numbers of tanks and armored personnel carriers was late last year. It is unclear how Ukraine can replace these current losses and maintain the momentum to continue pushing Russian lines.
Second, the route taken by Ukraine to reach the breach near Verbova makes the UAF vulnerable to flanking attacks, as Russian forces still control a long ridge of high ground overlooking the western heights above Rabotino, as well as a line east of Ukraine’s current attack direction. Currently, Russia is able to maintain persistent artillery and drone strikes focused on the main road from the Ukrainian rear, which is essential for moving new troops and supplies into the breach and evacuating wounded soldiers.
If the UAF attempts to continue to penetrate beyond this breach in the Russian line, it risks creating the conditions for a cauldron in which it could become vulnerable to a Russian attack from three sides – or in a worse case scenario – the mobile Russian reserves to cut off the barrel and trap the entire Ukrainian battle group, cut off from all support. To avoid this outcome, the UAF would have to expand its flanks of penetration and wrest control of the high ground from Russia to the west.
For now, Russia is preventing Ukraine from consolidating its control over Rabotino because of this high ground to the west, but also because of a series of trench lines and defensive strongpoints to the south of the village. The Russians also hold the village of Novoprokorivka, about 1,500 meters to the south. Ukraine needs to capture Novoprokorivka to be able to continue exploiting the breach in the main line of defense.
If Ukraine is able to secure its flanks and neutralize its current vulnerability, the next target across the rift will be the village of Verbova. It is about six kilometers from Rabotino, and Ukraine has so far halved that distance. Ukraine has indeed reached the front line, but so far only a few infantry platoons have penetrated beyond the line. To open the floodgates for substantial Ukrainian forces, they would need to fully penetrate and then expand the hole in the line.
Ukraine would have to move armored forces past the dragon’s teeth line, then cross the roughly 1,000 meters to the first long line of a tank trench, and then defeat the forward strongpoints of the Russian defenses of Verbova. The gap between the dragon’s teeth and the armored trench is filled with hundreds of meters of anti-tank and anti-personnel minefields.
The Russians know what Ukraine will try to do and are using artillery and anti-tank missile crews to target UAF formations, complicating any attempt to clear the minefields. Before Ukraine can make a concerted push to capture Verbova, it must eliminate Russian positions on both sides, while simultaneously clearing three levels of obstacles (dragon’s teeth, tank trench, and minefield).
Ukraine had a similar problem getting to and then going through Rabotino, so it has the ability and knowledge to overcome those difficulties. The unknown, however, is knowing how many resources they lost while chewing up the first 10 kilometers of Russia’s defenses. This offensive began on June 5 and took the better part of three months and untold numbers of armored vehicles and probably thousands of dead and wounded infantry to redeem these gains.
What about the weather in Ukraine
A recent Ukrainian video shows what appears to be a full battalion of fresh German tanks ready to engage the Russians, indicating that the UAF still has the ability to pack a big punch. Whether or not this will be enough to take Verbova remains to be seen, or whether they can take the next 10km in just under three months is unknown. To succeed in this venture will require not only more tanks and troops, but also the cooperation of the weather – which may be a greater obstacle than the Russians.
The rainy season begins in this part of Ukraine already in the second half of September. But October and November are likely to be very wet and muddy. Most of the fields that Ukrainian tanks must pass through to break through Russian defenses require them to cross large stretches of open fields. These fields, however, will turn into mud bogs within weeks. If the armored vehicles get stuck in the mud, they won’t be able to maintain the momentum needed to bring mass to a specific section of the line at a time of Ukraine’s choosing, and will be an easy target for Russian artillery and FPV drones.
In all likelihood, Ukraine will spend the final weeks before the start of the rainy season consolidating its gains, extending its control over the western heights of Rabotino and, if possible, completing the capture of Verbova. This will be a difficult undertaking, but it is doable. By all accounts, breaking Russia’s first main line of defense was a difficult and significant achievement for the UAF.
However, there are still about 25 kilometers of additional Russian defense zones and strong points to reach even Tokmak, and another 75 road kilometers to reach the strategic objective of Melitopol. Once the Ukrainian offensive reaches its peak, likely within weeks, Russia will begin the process of expanding and improving the remaining defensive lines south of Verbova, making it even more difficult to penetrate once Ukraine builds up a new offensive capability, possibly in the spring of 2024 .
Ukraine has won the battle to penetrate Russia’s first main defense zone. It is unclear whether they have sufficient capacity to continue propelling through additional zones before being slowed or stopped by weather conditions. One thing, however, is fairly certain: the war is far from over, and the cost in men and material to continue the fight will continue to pile up.
