With his trip to Moscow, the Chinese leader wanted to underline his support for Putin and Russia against “American hegemony”, to contribute to the development of bilateral relations, to promote China as a peaceful mediation force in the Ukraine war and, of course, to highlight his country’s leading role in the so-called Global South competing with the US-led North.
Recently, the Chinese leader has been highlighting his global role with impressive initiatives. Xi’s visit to Moscow was preceded by an agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran to normalize their relations, after Chinese mediation.
If US or EU diplomacy had achieved the Saudi Arabia-Iran rapprochement, we would be talking about a great success that changes the facts in a wider area of strategic importance. But the impressive success came from China, which shows how much the modern world has changed at the expense of the USA and “tired” Europe.
The example of Saudi Arabia
Until a few years ago we thought that Saudi Arabia was under the protection and influence of the USA. Now we are seeing extremely important changes.
1. Saudi Arabia cooperates with Russia on oil issues in the so-called OPEC+, in which Russia participates. After the energy crisis worsened due to the war in Ukraine, Saudi Arabia refused to side with the US to limit the effectiveness of Russia’s energy weapon.
2. China comes first in oil imports from Saudi Arabia and first in trade with the countries of the Arabian Peninsula. Inevitably, it transforms its economic power into political influence, as long as circumstances permit. China’s collusion with regimes such as Saudi Arabia and Iran is also facilitated by the fact that its political leadership and media do not express opinion, much less object to the anti-democratic, oppressive characteristics of these regimes.
3. the Saudis themselves, bolstered by oil and gas surpluses, believe they can pursue a more ambitious strategy in today’s multi-polar world, with a “Saudi Arabia first” logic.
After Xi highlighted China’s leading role in the wider region of Saudi Arabia and Iran, he also wanted to support his “friend” Putin, projecting China’s influence and testing the West’s cohesion.
The strategy
Xi is backing Putin, on his own terms, believing that the continued war in Ukraine is wearing down the US, can highlight differences between EU and USA and strengthens China by turning Russia into a strong partner that accepts China’s leading role (please read also the analysis titled “Putin and Xi Jinping: Similarities and Differences in Their Strategy“).
At the same time, China is trying to create a framework for the conduct of war so that the situation does not get out of control. The Chinese leadership would not want Russia to use nuclear weapons routinely even if its troops are in a difficult position, such as in the fall of 2022.
On the other hand, China seems to respect, for now, the red lines set by the US and not to supply weapons systems and munitions to the Russians.
Xi has repeatedly highlighted the arming of Ukraine by the US, NATO member states and the EU. in contrast to China which does not supply weapons systems to belligerents.
Russian troops are beginning to face some shortages in weapons systems and munitions, and will face greater difficulties when modern American and European armored vehicles, which Ukraine has already begun to receive, appear on the battlefield.
It is certain that Putin is pressuring Xi to help meet Russia’s armaments needs, but the Chinese leader is unlikely to respond. He knows that if he arms Russia, he will face US and European sanctions that could seriously damage the outward-looking Chinese economy.
He also estimates that if China arms Russia, it will reduce its international image in the perception of the governments of various states and will limit its possibilities for peaceful mediation and for its presence at the negotiating table that will define the rules that will apply after the end of the military conflict showdown.
Xi leaves nothing to chance
With the capabilities and responsibilities of the second superpower, the Chinese leave nothing to chance.
Backing Putin puts more pressure on the US where Republicans have already begun to complain about the high cost of supporting Ukraine. Democrats believe that in Ukraine, the Republic is clashing with the authoritarian regimes represented by Russia, while Republicans of the Trump mentality – which is still dominant – believe that Russia and Ukraine are engaged in a war over territorial disputes that are not of strategic importance to the US interests.
Russia’s war in Ukraine is also being evaluated by China based on its strategy against Taiwan. Beijing considers Taiwan, which has never experienced communist rule, an integral part of China. It seeks its integration by peaceful means without, however, excluding military intervention, if this is deemed necessary.
Russia’s attack on Ukraine is of particular interest to the People’s Liberation Army of China in this regard. The strategic errors and weaknesses of Russia’s armed forces are studied, the importance of time in such actions is assessed, and how the international environment affects the balance of power, particularly with regard to economic sanctions.
One reason the Chinese leadership wants to prolong the war in Ukraine is to come under less military pressure from the West, which has an open front with Russia over its plans for Taiwan.
Xi also knows that Europeans perceive China differently than the US and may make different calculations about the development of the war in Ukraine and future EU-Russia relations. That’s why they await Macron’s upcoming visit to Beijing with great interest.
