Since the end of the Gaza war, Iran has been reflecting on two turbulent years that have led it into a wider cycle of conflict and unrest, in contrast to the restraint it sought to maintain before the war. After the shock it suffered during the Israel-Iran war, known in Israel as Operation Rising Lion, and the heavy blow it suffered to its proxy network, Tehran appears to be taking steps to rebuild its deterrent power, while also sending a signal of intent to renew the “ring of fire” around Israel.
This decision comes amid growing external pressure, including the activation of the Security Council’s snapback mechanism, as well as a general sense of trauma within Iran following Israel’s surprise attack.
The signs
1. First worrying sign
Tehran seems to be focusing on increasing the range of its ballistic missiles to intercontinental distances, i.e. beyond 5,500 kilometers. MP Mohsen Zanganeh recently told Iranian television that the unexplained lights seen in Iran’s sky two days earlier and sparking public curiosity were in fact a successful test of an intercontinental ballistic missile.
It was likely the Khorramshahr-5, which reportedly has a range of up to 12,000 kilometers, although – as Defense Minister Nazirzadeh stated – it has not yet been put into operation.
Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian denied Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s claim that Iran is working on missiles capable of threatening Washington and New York.
However, Ahmad Bakhshaish Ardestani, a member of the Iranian parliament’s Foreign Affairs and Security Committee, confirmed the news.
2. Second worrisome sign
Along with the talk of ICBMs, pressure is mounting within the regime for Khamenei to authorize the production of nuclear weapons. Last week, Ali Shamkhani, a senior adviser to Khamenei and a longtime manager of Iran’s nuclear program, called on the regime to develop nuclear weapons, saying it would have been better if Iran had taken the step in the 1990s.
Earlier, on September 22, 70 members of Iran’s parliament reportedly sent a letter to the Supreme National Security Council, which makes the regime’s strategic decisions, requesting permission to develop nuclear weapons.
The lawmakers stressed that their request concerns the possession and development of such weapons solely for deterrence, not for use.
At the same time, nuclear scientist Mahmoud Reza Aghamiri, president of Shahid Beheshti University in Tehran, which is under US and European sanctions due to its involvement in the nuclear program, said that if Iran ever needs to build an atomic bomb, “it could do it successfully.” He added that Iran has the capability and resources to develop nuclear weapons, although it has no intention of doing so at the moment.
3. Third worrisome sign
In parallel with the two previous fronts, Tehran seems determined to rebuild its network of proxies despite the major upheavals caused by the war in the Middle East.
According to a revelation in the Mossad Persian account in X, Abdollah Saberi has been appointed to replace Saeed Izadi, who was killed during Operation Rising Lion, as head of the Palestinian branch of the Quds Force. Saberi will be responsible for rebuilding Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip, Lebanon and Syria.
Saberi is expected to rely on the Quds Force’s Unit 840, responsible for special operations, which in recent years the IDF and Shin Bet have prevented from transferring sophisticated weapons systems to terrorist organizations in the West Bank; on Unit 340, which provides technical and technological support to Iran’s regional networks; and on Unit 190, responsible for arms trafficking, whose commander Henam Al-Hiryari was also killed during Operation Im Keliv.
Tehran sees the strengthening of the so-called “Axis of Resistance” as vital to its national security.
This perception was recently echoed by Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of parliament and a member of the Supreme National Security Council, who openly expressed Iran’s ambition to renew the “ring of fire” around Israel.
He argued that if Iran does not fight Israel on the Golan front, Israel will move the battle to Iran’s borders.
He also stressed that the route for supplying support to Hezbollah remains open, even if it has become more difficult due to regional developments – an indication of Iran’s intention to regroup and strengthen Hezbollah.
Finally, the commander of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) Navy, Ali-Reza Tangsiri, recently boasted about Tehran’s ability to export missiles, drones, and warships.
The trauma remains
This trend is also evident in the Islamic Republic’s reaction to a recent message conveyed by Russian President Vladimir Putin on behalf of Prime Minister Netanyahu, according to which Israel does not intend to renew the war against Iran.
Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi said that Iranian forces remain on alert for the possibility of a resumption of the war, as it is very likely that this is an Israeli deception.
At the same time, in an effort to stop the sharp fall of the national currency and to calm popular discontent that could lead to demonstrations, the regime is sending reassuring messages domestically.
Security officials told the media that the enemy would not dare to resume the war and that the likelihood of such a development is small.
Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces Mohammad Bagheri and Commander of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) Mohammad Pakpour stressed in their statements that Iranian forces are fully prepared for a strong fight against any kind of threat or attack.
Where is Tehran headed?
And what does the Supreme Leader say? In a speech last month, Ayatollah Khamenei argued at length that resuming negotiations with the United States would be a move that would do more harm than good, as it would amount to subservience to President Trump and lead to new American demands on missiles and other areas.
But moderates and reformists are questioning his policy, as was evident in the strong criticism of the decision to reject an invitation to President Pezeshkian to attend a summit hosted by Trump in Sharm el-Sheikh.
In their view, his participation could pave the way for renewed talks with the United States and a de-escalation of tensions. However, given Khamenei’s deep suspicion and lack of trust in Trump, it seems likely that for now the Iranian leader will continue to set strict conditions for the resumption of negotiations and will insist on a policy designed to endure the Trump administration.
In light of these developments, Israel should prepare for the possibility of Iran’s return to Syria, especially in a scenario where Khamenei is persuaded by hardline officials who call for the development of nuclear weapons.
Iran’s effort to upgrade its missile program and reconstitute the “Axis of Resistance” shows once again that Tehran will remain at the center of Israel’s strategic calculations.
Domestic support for the development of nuclear weapons, Iran’s growing international isolation, its missile efforts against the West, and, for now, the end of the war in Gaza offer Israel an opportunity to strengthen its strategic alliance with the United States under President Trump.
Accordingly, Israel should seek to expand this alliance to include leading European countries—a move that would strengthen cooperation against Iran, increase pressure on Tehran, and legitimize military and economic action against it.
Khamenei Rejects Trump Proposal to Resume Talks – Iran Cancels IAEA Agreement
Meanwhile, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Monday rejected US President Donald Trump’s proposal to resume talks and denied his claim that the United States has destroyed Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
Tehran and Washington have been engaged in five rounds of indirect nuclear negotiations, which ended with a 12-day air war in June in which Israel and the US bombed Iranian nuclear facilities.
“Trump says he is a dealmaker, but if a deal is accompanied by intimidation and the outcome is predetermined, it is not a deal but imposition and bullying,” Khamenei was quoted as saying by state media.
Last week, Trump told the Israeli parliament that it would be great if Washington could negotiate a “peace deal” with Tehran, following the start of a ceasefire in Gaza between Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas.
“The American president boasts that he bombed and destroyed the Iranian nuclear industry. Very well, keep dreaming!” Khamenei added. “What does America have to do with whether Iran has nuclear facilities or not? These interventions are inappropriate, wrong and coercive.”
Western powers accuse Iran of secretly trying to develop a nuclear bomb through uranium enrichment and demand that it stop this activity. Tehran denies seeking military use of enrichment, stressing that the program has exclusively peaceful energy purposes.
Iran cancels UN deal
Iran has announced it is canceling a cooperation agreement it signed with the UN nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, in September, the secretary-general of the Supreme National Security Council said on Monday, according to state media.
The announcement comes about three weeks after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran would cancel the agreement, which allowed the IAEA to resume inspections of its nuclear facilities if Western powers reimpose UN sanctions – which happened last month.
The development is a blow to the International Atomic Energy Agency, which had been trying to restore cooperation with Tehran after Israeli and US bombings of its nuclear facilities in June.
“The agreement has been canceled,” Larijani said during a meeting with his Iraqi counterpart in Tehran, according to state media.
“Of course, if the organization has any proposal, we will consider it in the secretariat’s office,” he added.
