Developments in the strategically important city of Kostiadinivka in eastern Ukraine appear to be unfavourable to Kiev, as Russian troops allegedly have infiltrated and are trying to encircle it. As it is characteristically stated, “the whole city is now essentially in a “grey zone”, which is no longer controlled by anyone”.
“They are entering areas behind our backs and in an urban environment it is extremely difficult to push them back,” says a Ukrainian drone operator who operates in that area and prefers to remain anonymous, on condition of anonymity. Kostiadinivka is a gateway to the rest of the Donbas region.
According to the same report, if it falls, Russian forces will be able to advance towards Ukraine’s last remaining forts in the east, the towns of Kramatorsk and Slavyansk, and approach the full takeover of Donbass, one of the Kremlin’s main targets in this war.
For months, Russia’s war on Ukraine has stopped along the frontline, and Ukrainian military commanders say they have recovered more territory this year than they have lost, cutting off Moscow’s critical supply lines between the Russian border and occupied Crimea. On Sunday, Russian-appointed authorities in Crimea suspended fuel sales to the public due to shortages. In addition, Kiev’s repeated attacks on oil refineries in Moscow, St. Petersburg and other cities have also tried to draw Russian attention away from the frontline of the conflict.
But in Kostiadinivka, Russian soldiers have advanced from the south and have even been spotted on the other side of the city, in the northern suburbs of the city. Moscow says its forces are rapidly advancing into the southwestern part of Kostiadinivka and that they have surrounded Ukrainian military units.
This is denied by Kiev, with military officials involved in the region’s defence saying that “the situation remains under control” and that “the enemy has no success”. However, it is acknowledged that there are about 130 Russian soldiers still inside the city.
The situation on the ground may not be as critical as Moscow says, but it looks far more serious than Ukrainian officials are prepared to admit publicly.
Every building in Kostiadinivka serves as a possible shelter for soldiers, and in the summer months the trees provide extra cover. Thus, Russian forces have found a way to move into the ‘death zone’ where Ukrainian drones can detect any movement and attack immediately. Russian drone pilots have also focused on destroying Ukrainian drone launch sites.
To give their infantry attacking Ukrainian positions a breath, Russian pilots had set Ukrainian crews as a priority target. Russian forces in Kostiadinivka have adopted a similar strategy to that used in the capture of Pokrovsk and other major cities in eastern Ukraine, moving along the sides to encircle the city and cut off supply routes.
In recent days, the Russian Defense Ministry has said it has taken villages to the west of the city. Such reports have helped distract attention from Ukrainian attacks on oil refineries deep inside Russia and supply routes to Crimea and the major fuel shortages they have caused. This seems to explain the Kremlin’s decision to surround and capture Kostiadinivka as soon as possible.
Russian drone units do not even need to rely on sophisticated unmanned systems, as they are now close enough to use cheap Chinese drones that cannot fly away to conduct surveillance and detect Ukrainian drone launch points.
Delivery of supplies has become extremely difficult, with land routes continuously targeted and large logistical and refueling drones regularly intercepted. The collapse of Kostiadinivka “is a matter of time”, says the well-known Ukrainian front-line monitoring programme “DeepState”. Once this happens, operations in the region will be more complex and even staying in Kramatorsk will become “extremely dangerous,” he says.
