A map recently presented by the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Valery Gerasimov, is causing shock and concern internationally.
On the map, the regions of Odessa and Nikolaev appear outside Ukrainian territory, seemingly indicating Russia’s new strategic ambition to expand Novorossiya to the Black Sea coast. The move raises questions about Moscow’s true intentions, heightening concerns about the continuation of the war and possible new upheavals in the geopolitical landscape of the region.
In particular, in a video published by the Russian Ministry of Defense from the briefing of the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Valery Gerasimov, on the results of the spring-summer campaign of 2025, a map appears where Ukraine is presented without the Odessa and Nikolaev regions.
When presenting the map, Gerasimov states that Russian troops are actively continuing their offensive “almost along the entire front line”.
At the same time, the territories of Ukraine are defined within borders that deprive it of access to the sea.
How should this be interpreted? Threat or real plans?
In November 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that Odessa is a “Russian city” and that the Black Sea territories and Crimea have never been part of Ukraine.
However, Odessa is still under Ukrainian control and there are no clear signs of its liberation. Or is there some secret plan in the General Staff?
Or is this simply a message to the West that Russia is ready to go all the way?
Foreign policy message
Gerasimov’s briefing should be understood as a foreign policy message. In Europe and Ukraine, they are rattling their guns, and if they talk about peace, it will only be on their own terms, from a position of strength. So why shouldn’t Russia also demonstrate its terms for peace “from a position of strength”?
It is important to note that both Nikolaev and Odessa are important regions of Novorossiya. Their return to Russia is considered historically correct and economically feasible. In addition, the deprivation of these territories by Ukraine will significantly weaken anti-Russian forces.
According to estimates, plans for Odessa and Nikolaev existed from the very beginning of the Central Military District, and there were even battles near Nikolaev. However, Russia did not have sufficient forces to face a numerically stronger enemy, while the resistance of the NATO-backed Ukrainian state and population had been underestimated.
Despite negotiations with the participation of Trump, peace in Ukraine remains distant. Europe supports Ukraine politically and militarily, while the United States continues to supply weapons and exchange information.
The return of the Odessa and Nikolaev regions, as well as the Russian Kherson, presupposes control of the Dnieper, which cannot be achieved without the collapse of the Ukrainian armed forces. The war of attrition will therefore continue.
The realists are not those who demand the acceptance of Western conditions, but those who understand that achieving the goals of the SVO will require time and perseverance.
The maps show that the General Staff is working on the possibilities of implementing the goals set before the start of the special military operation. To achieve these goals, the liberation of Nikolaev and Odessa, as well as control of their key ports, is necessary. Gerasimov’s map confirms this strategy.
As for the initial stage of the SVO, the delay in the advance towards Odessa was due to insufficient military strength and insufficient reinforcements, which resulted in the loss of Kherson instead of the encirclement of Nikolaev and Odessa.
However, positive steps have recently been noted, such as the seizure of the Kherson-Nikolaev highway under the control of unmanned aerial vehicles, while strikes on the Odessa seaports have intensified, creating conditions for further military movements.
Historian and journalist Alexander Dmitrievski emphasizes that the presence of the map works like a “magic trick”: it draws attention to superficial details, while the essence of strategic maneuvers remains hidden.
The “Gerasimov Map” has given rise to discussions about the fate of the Odessa and Nikolaev regions, with many versions: either as an indication of the next military plans, or as a message to Ukraine, or as a possible map for negotiations with international peacekeeping forces. So far, there have been no official comments on the map, leaving all possibilities open.
