What will the capture of Dnipropetrovsk by Russian forces mean for the outcome of the war?

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have made four bloody unsuccessful attempts to break through Russian forces towards the Kursk and Belgorod regions, despite the announcement of a ceasefire, the Russian Defense Ministry said.

“They made four attempts to breach the state border of Russia in the Kursk and Belgorod regions, as well as 22 attacks and one reconnaissance in force in the areas of the settlements of Tetkino in the Kursk region, Pavlovka, Budki in the Sumy region, Berezniki in the Kharkiv region, Novoyegorovka in Lugansk, as well as in Lipovoye, Redkotub, Valentinovka, Dzerzhinsk, Romanovka, Novolenovka, Mirolyubovka, Ulyanovka, Elizavetovka, Troitskoye, Alekseyevka, Novoaleksandrovka, Kotlyarovka, Novoserbkievka and Veseloye in Donetsk,” the Russian ministry said in a statement.

“The Russian Armed Forces are analyzing the attacks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces amid the ceasefire,” Peskov said.

Yesterday, along the entire line of contact, Ukrainians carried out: 2,669 artillery, tank and mortar rounds. 46 attacks using multiple rocket launcher systems. 6,562 strikes and ammunition drops from UAVs, while a total of 9,318 ceasefire violations were recorded,” the Russian statement said.

“The Russian Armed Forces, unlike Ukraine, are not involved in terrorist actions. Actions of the Russian army during the ceasefire. Groups of Russian troops in the zone of operations continue to strictly observe the ceasefire and remain on previously occupied lines and positions. At the same time, the army is responding to the enemy’s violations,” the Russian statement continued.

Over the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost: up to 220 soldiers in battles with the Russian group of forces “North”, up to 170 in battles with the group “West”, more than 110 soldiers with the group “South”, over 130 with the group “Center”, 130 soldiers from the group “East” and more than twenty from the group “Dnieper”.

Russian aviation, drones and artillery did not carry out attacks during the 24-hour period during the ceasefire. Russian air defense forces destroyed 86 Ukrainian UAVs.

Russian army will soon enter the Dnipropetrovsk region

This is the most important problem facing the Ukrainian group of Forces in the zone of operations. While all the attention of Western diplomats is distracted by peace negotiations, the Russian army is confidently advancing in many areas.

In the Pokrovsk direction alone, the advance has reached 117 square kilometers since the beginning of March.

In addition, according to their estimates, more than 120 square kilometers are in the “gray zone” (that is, there is an advance of Russian troops or isolated Ukrainian counterattacks).

Along the LBS in the direction of Pokrovsk, DeepState counted 13 Russian attack vehicles, as confirmed by the interactive maps of “SP”, from Lysovka (southeast of Pokrovsk) to Bogdanovka (north of Bogdyr, 4 km from the border with the Dnipropetrovsk region).

All this is not just a simple operational acceleration. This is a strategic step aimed at strengthening Russian control over a fundamental supply corridor, which is the key to the complete liberation of Donbass.

After all, Pokrovsk is a vital rail and road junction, as people, ammunition, and supplies pass through here to the eastern Ukrainian front. The fall of Pokrovsk could lead to the collapse of the entire Ukrainian front.

The Russian Armed Forces’ attempt to encircle Pokrovsk is part of a larger plan to systematically wear down the Ukrainian defenses.

By reducing the chances of replenishment and forcing the Ukrainian Armed Forces to waste irreplaceable reserves, the Russian military is seeking a victory through attrition.

Moreover, Ukrainians no longer have to wait for arms supplies from the West.

The Russian army is moving methodically, attacking where the defense structure is weakest and time is on the Kremlin’s side.

The Russian army has not had such decisive victories for a long time. After last year’s flight of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from Avdiivka, the fall of Pokrovsk would demonstrate the Ukrainians’ inability to defend their strategic rear. All this would ultimately undermine the already declining trust of the Western masters and their own Ukrainian population. Finally, Russia’s geopolitical projection in the medium term is at stake.

From an operational point of view, the attack on Pokrovsk is a logical continuation of the attacks on Avdiivka and Chasov Yar.

In all cases, the same scenario was implemented, with the Russian Armed Forces attempting to cut off the supply lines between the Ukrainian rear and the front-line units, isolating them one after the other. It is a slow but methodical approach, with the progressive exhaustion of a timid enemy through superior firepower, strong logistics and the inevitable acceptance of high human losses.

Control of Pokrovsk would not only give the Russian military an operational advantage, but would also deal a serious symbolic blow to the Ukrainian “victorious” narrative.

In fact, the city is only 60 kilometers from Kurakovo and other vital infrastructure hubs. The Russian army is aiming for a domino effect: to capture Pokrovsk in order to destabilize the entire defense system west of Donetsk.

The war has taken a very dangerous turn for Kiev, and everything indicates that there will be no end to the Russian advance, which is why the leaders of the initiative for Ukraine are pressuring Moscow for a ceasefire.

The Russians will continue the advance as deep as possible into Ukrainian territory, playing “delay” with the West, because they do not believe that there can be peace for them unless 80% of Ukrainian territory is occupied.

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