Iran’s attack on Israel on the night of Saturday to Sunday April 13/14 resulted in a strategic failure. Tehran attempted to respond to the April 1 bombing of its consulate in Damascus that killed seven senior members of the Revolutionary Guards’ Al Quds Force.
Iran launched about 170 kamikaze drones and more than 150 missiles against Israel, including 60 cruise missiles. All of this saturation attack was intercepted, mostly outside Israeli airspace. The interceptions were made by the air force and anti-missile defense of the Israelis and by aircraft and ships of the US, Britain, France and even Jordan.
There were no casualties on Israeli soil, except for one child injured by shrapnel.
The Israelis announced that only one of their air bases suffered minor material damage. But what would have happened if, in the densely populated Israel, even a part of the Iranian drones and missiles had found their targets?
The attack was launched from the territory of Iran (for the first time) and from the territories of Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, where the Iranians have a military presence, but also from the territory of Yemen controlled by the Houthis. The interception, for the most part, took place over the lands of these areas.
It is noteworthy that the air defenses of the Russians, who support the Assad government, do not react to the violation of Syrian airspace by Israeli aircraft when they attack Iranian forces or installations.
Iranians are seen as something of an independent entity within territory controlled by Damascus. This is how the Iranian consulate was also bombed.
Israel, with the help of its partners, now appears invulnerable, and its prime minister, M. Netanyahu, celebrates while planning the punishment of Tehran. Iran now appears weak and unable to deliver a meaningful blow to its adversary. This was his geostrategic mistake.
When one state launches an attack against another and it fails, then it is a substantial defeat for the attacker. Iran, before the attack, had to take into account its military capabilities, as well as those of its adversaries.
He should have known that the air-missile power correlation does not favor it. He should answer in a more favorable field for this, where he would have chances of even partial success. None of this happened. Iran reacted with fury, announcing its attack and not as rationally as it should have done.
Iran’s prestige, which it tried to restore after the attack on the consulate, has now suffered even more. Its proxies in Syria, Iraq, the Shiite Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Palestinian Hamas and the Houthis realize that the protective power and heart of the “Axis of Resistance” cannot successfully confront the common enemy.
Disappointment among the Muslim masses (not the governments) of the region is great.
The US and all NATO countries condemned the Iranian attack and pledged to defend Israel’s security. At the same time, they emphasized that they do not wish and will not support it if the latter escalates the confrontation because such a thing would have dramatic consequences not only for stability in the wider Middle East region, but also for the global economy.
Even countries outside the Western bloc, such as Russia and China, have called for restraint on all sides. The same was requested by Turkey, patron of Hamas, enemy of Israel and cooperating in many fields with Tehran.
Iran’s direct attack exonerated Israel for its operations in Gaza, demonstrated its relative military weakness and exposed it to additional economic sanctions from the international community, already requested by Israel from the UN Security Council.
The question is how Israel will react in the coming days, which was attacked on its territory, even without significant consequences. But it is certain that he will react. Tehran’s allies in Lebanon, Syria and certainly the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank will likely foot the bill. Of course, it is not excluded that military targets inside the territory of Iran will also be hit.
Let’s also not forget that Israel has been looking for an opportunity to end Iran’s nuclear program for years. Will he consider that now is the historic opportunity?
Of course, for whatever it decides to do, Israel will invoke, as Iran did, the right to self-defense, provided for by the UN Charter (Article 51).
Iran’s attack on Israel was, judging by the outcome, a geostrategic mistake.
