Reaching the current stage of the war in Ukraine, where Russia has now gained an advantage on the battlefield, (for more information please read the analysis entitled “War in Ukraine: the Battlefield Advantage to the Russians”), is slowly but surely established, that top US officials have already begun to “trumpet retreat” from the war rhetoric of recent months. With obvious but unacknowledged concern, Presidency Joe Biden is already slowly moving forward with a review.
This US policy review is based on specific data such as:
1. that the Russians, after their initial failure, regrouped and won one battle after another.
2. that the deadly sanctions have wounded, but nowhere do they prevent Russia from conducting its military operations.
3. that sanctions have become a boomerang, primarily for Europe but also for the United States.
4. watches with concern the impact on the global economy and supply chain cracks.
5. that the Ukrainian armed forces are reaching the limits of their endurance, despite their massive supply of Western weapons systems.
Now, in the West, they are proposing what just a while ago was almost forbidden. They say this war must end. If the war continues, stagnant inflation that will “sweep” Western societies will give China the necessary economic and productive advantage, and as achieved by the zero-case policy during the Covid-19 pandemic, by China. The Western claims that the media has been flooded with Russia for two weeks, that the ruble will be scrapped, that Putin will be overthrown by an internal coup, now seem like propaganda crowns.
This was from the beginning, but the climate cultivated by the Western communication machine left no room for dissent. Western expectations, if they were really expectations, were dashed in both the military and the economic and political spheres. Russia now receives more, selling less oil and gas due to rising prices. The ruble has appreciated and interest rates are being lowered to stop its rise!
And the more comprehensive efforts to exclude Russia from the international system, prove to be another pious desire. Now, the West is looking for a way to stop the war, but it is not in its hands. It was entirely predictable that Russia’s geographical proximity to the business fronts in Ukraine would give it an absolute advantage.
Unless one sincerely believes that peace will be negotiated by Zelensky with Putin and not by Washington. Zelensky, who never seemed to realize that there was an expiration date on unlimited support, would simply be called upon to accept what his weakness would impose on him.
The alternative would be to turn Ukraine into an enclosed state and further complicate European security by establishing contact points between Russian and NATO forces and reviving the debate on nuclear deterrence in Europe. And all this in parallel with the economic catastrophe that will be experienced mainly by European societies, which will inevitably exert strong pressure on their governments in the not-too-distant future.
Washington’s concerns are obvious and specify what will follow. And if Zelensky refuses to adjust to the new role, he will realize that the meteoric rise can easily be completed with an equally impressive fall. Repeats like this months ago for the British Guardian for a fortune of around 800 million euros will be possible. It will not be the easiest to justify “where did you come from” in a society that will experience utter destruction. It will break out somewhere.
The game now concerns the “big kids” of the international system and the cheerleaders of the past will go aside.
The only thing that is certain is that many of the military accomplishments on the field are simply irreversible if you do not find a way to reverse them yourself. Anyone looking at the map under development in the Black Sea region will realize that the US will not care who controls Donbass.
They have it written off. The West is losing critical mineral wealth to its economy, but the potential cost of land reclamation is simply prohibitive. Whether Ukraine will end up as an enclosed country has not yet been decided. Moscow is holding it as a threat to have additional power at the negotiating table that at some point, even behind the scenes, will begin with the Americans.