The forthcoming meeting of US President Joe Biden with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan, on the sidelines of the forthcoming G20 Summit in Rome, on October 30-31, creates the conditions for the meeting to address all the problems US-Turkey bilateral relations.
The Background of the problems
The problems started on the Turkish side after the coup in July 2016. But then the problems escalated after the purchase of the Russian anti-aircraft / anti-ballistic missile system S-400 Triumph from Turkey, which next caused the imposition of sanctions in Turkey by CAATSA-US law, but also the expulsion of Turkey from the program of fifth generation F-35 fighters. At this stage and before the G20 Summit, Turkey is asking the US to purchase 40 new F-16 block 70/72 fighter jets and upgrade another 80 existing fighters of the same type in the Turkish Air Force arsenal in the same configuration.
The framework of discussion that Turkey wants to set
• Τhe set of bilateral political and economic ties.
• The developments in Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq, Caucasus, Libya, and Eastern Mediterranean.
• The extradition to Turkey of the leader of the FETO organization Gulen, who lives in the USA.
• Suspension of sanctions imposed on Turkey under CAATSA law.
• The cessation of the expulsion of Turkey from the program of F-35 fighters.
Turkey’s efforts
Turkey considers the isolation of Turkish armaments from the wider context to be a major mistake. That is why Turkey is sending messages to the US that they continue to consider other alternatives as a country (such as Europe, Russia). Of course, in order to bring this issue up for discussion, Turkey will explore the possibility of convincing the US that it is also discussing the issue of S-400s with the appropriate exchanges.
Turkey knows that this is the issue (the purchase and possession of the S-400) that has led to the imposition of sanctions, changing everything in bilateral relations between the two countries, and that in order to rectify things it must abandon the S-400. Turkey’s goal now is to negotiate an interim solution that will save pretexts both in its relations with Russia and in order not to show that Turkey is retreating when it wants to present itself as a global regional power.
In this case, Turkey would agree to keep the S-400s, but without activating them. Only Turkey will have to find the exchange that the US will not be able to resist in order to achieve this goal.
The USA
The question is whether the US will stick to some key positions of principle, such as rejecting any alternative other than getting rid of the S-400s, including their possession, and not just moving away from Turkey.
On the other hand, Turkey’s request for F-16 fighters has strategic and tactical content. At the strategic level, the complete destruction and devaluation of the entire fleet of Turkish Air Force fighters is a huge political and strategic cost.
At the regular level, Turkey expects to convince the US that if they do not accept their offer, in terms of F-16s, then the US will stop gaining from the huge and golden armaments market of Turkey and inevitably without solutions Turkey, in will then be turned to alternative equipment suppliers.
In addition, Turkey will demand that the purchase cost of the 40 new F-16s and the upgrade of the existing 80 F-16s be equated to the $ 1.4 billion that Turkey invested in the F-35 program and was subsequently eliminated, setting the cost of its participation in the F-35 as compensation.
Of course, Turkey forgot to equate the profit of the Turkish defense industry from their inclusion in the co-production program of the F-35 fighter. In this way, Turkey wants to crush the US, and force them to take back the US arms embargo. It is obvious that Turkey is in a clearly cramped situation. However, it is trying to reverse this situation, bearing in mind that the US does not want to lose it from the Western camp.
