China`s Shrewd Diplomacy II

China has applied to join the free market space block CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership) in response to the new alliance between the United States of America, the United Kingdom and Australia (AUKUS).

The Chinese Diplomacy and how it reduces the US power

A long-term art of Chinese diplomacy, is managing to indirectly dampen the US force against her, managing to accelerate its economic integration with other countries, giving in to China the opportunity to acquire stronger foundation in the global market and economy, protecting its growth and reducing disconnection probabilities which dare to do other countries with her, isolating both the US and forced the other countries to act unilaterally (for more information please read the analysis entitled “China’s Shrewd Diplomacy I” ).

The Regional Complete Eonomic Partnership (RCEP) is a successful example of the way of how China succeded, while the overall China-European Union Investment Agreement (CAI) is another example. 

The US allies have not pledged to break away financially from China in the way the US has done. The United Kingdom is an example of this trend, while London has committed to military rebound against China, has not sought the removal of trade and economic ties between them.

China has applied to join a block of countries created by the United States and then during the Donald Trump`s presidency the US has abandoned it, rightly showing that the US is behind in this area of trade-economic diplomacy compared to China.

Anxious to China to join it in CPTPP, as China aims to the fact that more negotiations with US allies for financial provisions that are favorable to them, can reduce the section of unity among them both to repel China and to simultaneously isolate the US, providing parallel China an economical assurance while ensuring itself of, and since this is a more strategic choice in the future.

How this diplomaticque technique works

Because the US can not compete with China, as regards the economic and trade terms, their proposals are undermining deliberately such agreements, causing political “embolisms” between China and these countries, with which China is approached (if you can not win the deal, spoil it).

Its prospects of succeeding in joining the block of these countries are unclear, mainly due to the high standards regarding the market access it requires. But the issue that arises is, if the US leave many of his closest allies to enter into an agreement by which not ruled.

Every member of CPTPP, it must be agreed with the integration of China and we know by the CAI agreement with Europe that the US require full compliance by its allies in what he calls China’s economic practices .

The US does not tolerate its allies gaining economic advantages from China that they may not have for themselves.

The chances of success in this environment is obviously vague. But these countries will reject the possibility of greater access in the China`s market and economic concessions that will follow?

What can the US do?

The Canada on equality will not promote strong resistance, while other countries like Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam and Brunei will accept also the entrance of China, will do likewise Chile with Peru, but so is New Zealand.

All the US needs is for any allied country to oppose in China`s apllication entry, and this limit for these countries do not have high costs and given what is happening with Australia today. The UK would not oppose the inclusion of China because it has strengthened economic ties with China and it wants to maintain them without the existence of a political quarrel for a bilateral agreement.

But Japan is doing what the US wants and could block China. But no matter how time-consuming the accession process turns out to be, China still has enough influence and leverage in the market to cause problems in US diplomacy with its allies.

The differences between Australia and New Zealand are significant for China. Of course, a change in government in New Zealand would end these differences and any country that opposes the integration of China into CPTPP, will have to justify creating further obstacles in the US.

Given the above, it explains why China believes, that even an unsuccessful bid is in its interest. It is a layer of diplomatic leverage in its disposal which seems not to exercise properly the USA.

China believes that by multiplying the size of economic ties with other countries is a long-term strategic response in trying to avoid a cold war. The larger trade size makes it very difficult decisions of other countries to take a stand in favor of the USA or in favour of China.

The China believes that it has the means to overcome diplomatically and economically the US, but the US knows how to shape the global debate and impair relations of other countries with China .

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