In recent times the whole planet has been horrified by the rapid deployment of Russian forces near the border with Ukraine. But the folding of Russian troops was even faster following Russia’s decision to de-escalation of tension.
Russia’s geographical advantage in this hotbed of tension has been instrumental in leading Russia once again in its history to use military escalation and de-escalation respectively to cause shock and awe in the West and especially in the EU bordering Russia. At the same time, Russia was aiming from the outset at a peaceful settlement of the Eastern Ukraine issue.
by Thanos S. Chonthrogiannis
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What we conclude is that Russia has chosen with intent to pursue the strategy of gradual military escalation to achieve its objectives from the outset.
Russia’s goal is to search in every way and achieve a strategic moratorium with the US. Russia does not want to clash with the US and since it does not risk the interests of the two superpowers.
Russia is aware of its weaknesses and that its relations with the US will determine whether Russia finally escapes its economic stagnation. Russia’s economy, despite its chronic efforts to get rid of exports of hydrocarbons and mineral raw materials respectively, has not managed to escape this one-dimensional export of products. By this disadvantage of the Russian economy to this day, it makes It impossible for Russia to increase its national power at all levels.
Russia, and always in geographical and territorial terms, is a vast country. From this element comes the insecurity of Russia, which over the last three centuries has always sought the creation of a “neutral” geopolitical zone, if not controlled by it, that would ensure not only its interests but also its security both on its western and southwestern borders, respectively.
Given the intense Islamic element that is intense in the Caucasus Republics (Georgia, Chechnya) and Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan respectively, it forces Russia to implement harsh exemplary policies that do not allow any chance of rekindling the questioning of its security.
If Russia finds that any opponent of the (country) around its borders does not enter any questioning of its security, then Russia pursues a policy of intransigence and moderation.
US President Joe Biden’s dynamic entry into the international political scene, going so far as to accuse the Russian President of being a murderer (see analysis entitled “Joe Biden’s Decoding of “Killer” Designation for Vladimir Putin”)) brought to light Russia’s insecurity, making it believe that the US is trying to advance its interests at the expense of Russian interests.
Photo by the website www.trtworld.com
This insecurity of Russia was mainly caused by the insistence of the USA, which can be described as blackmail towards Germany, concerning the failure to complete the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project, and the warning of sanctions on all cooperating companies in this project.
Russia is about to go to war when the valuable revenues for the survival of the Russian people from its uniquely exportable product are affected to the point of their extinction.
So, since Ukraine is currently controlled by the West, Russia does not want in any way to have under western control its gas transmission network, which passes through Ukraine to the EU, under the control of the West.
Nord Stream 2 has this geopolitical significance for Russia. It is the US’s failure to control Russia’s most valuable revenues from the EU’s energy dependency.
Photo by the website gr.euronews.com
The fact that Russia, through the President of Turkey, has so far caused a rift in NATO cohesion, has led to a rapid deployment of Russian troops, now threatening the possibility of losing the whole of Eastern Ukraine and the same way that Crimea was lost.
Both the US and NATO could theoretically oppose Russia, in the field of Ukraine, by military means. But on a theoretical level. Both the US and NATO cannot on this “front” on Russia’s regional borders, whether that front is called Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia, Chechnya, etc., rapidly deploy equivalent military forces in the face of Russia’s inexhaustible flow of forces near its borders.
The above finding, which you mean Russia is aware of, also defined the strategy pursued by Russia in the specific case of Eastern Ukraine under consideration.
In other words, rapid military escalation forcing the West into retreat in search of compromise through the announcement by US President Joe Biden on the prospect of a summit, at which the problems of bilateral relations will be discussed.
That is why the US has made the withdrawal of troops from the Ukraine-Russia border a condition, since no country comes to the negotiating table under military threat.
At the same time Russia seized the opportunity and agreed immediately, de-escalating its military deployment with a rapid military wrap.
In other words, and given that Russia is doing what it says (Crimea, Georgia, Chechnya, Belarus, Eastern Ukraine) using military force in the countries bordering it, creating consistency between its words and its actions, it has used a military method to achieve a peaceful settlement.
The U.S., for its part, knowing how Russia will do in this case, because of the credibility between its words and actions in such cases, cornered Russia by escalating the situation verbally and diplomatically, starting with the US President’s accusation against the President of Russia and since militarily they could not do anything other than point out their presence near Russia’s borders. , they forced Russia to adopt its well-known strategy in order to seize the opportunity when it was offered, to come to the negotiating table.
At the same time, both the US and Russia know that in the fields around its Western and Southwest borders Russia’s military advantage is irresistible, yet they know that Russia would not do anything that would jeopardise its interests globally.
