Since the beginning of the new year (2021) there has been a continuous and escalating series of violations of the ceasefire in Eastern Ukraine by both the Russian-speaking separatists of Donetsk and Lugansk and the Ukrainian army, creating an appropriate climate to increase the likelihood of both sides being involved in an open military confrontation.
The strong hopes of a quite different course of relations between Ukraine and Russia by 2020 seem to have evaporated.
President Volodymyr Zelensky’s efforts to reach peace in the Eastern Ukraine region have not progressed, leading to the situation reaching the brink of war.
The reasons why the situation reached this tense military climate can be summarised as:
1. Russia’s refusal to discuss the Ukrainian President’s proposal to revise the Minsk Ceasefire Agreement, where the President of Ukraine wanted to include Russia as an involved party other than the Russian-speaking people of Donetsk and Lugansk, putting Russia accountable for the commitments made by the Russian-speaking parties.
In response, Russia granted Russian-speaking Russian passports to the Russian speakers of Eastern Ukraine, turning the region into a Russian protectorate with the aim of attaching it at some point.
2. The Ukrainian military elite began to hope that it could win a war in the Russian-speaking region of Eastern Ukraine, following the defeat of the Armenians by Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh with the help of Turkey.
Turkey is assisting Ukraine to this end, while covets the leverage of Crimean Tatar populations, wishing to send a peacekeeping expeditionary armed force to Crimea. But they are unaware that Russia is not Armenia.
3. The escalation of tension was increased by the American’s offensive line President Joe Biden versus Russia. This is demonstrated by Victoria Newland’s return to the State Department, and it is she who planned and led the overthrow of friend-Russian Ukrainian President Viktor Fedorovych Yanukovych (2013-2014).
Combined with US Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s statement that the US would never accept the annexation of Crimea it forced Ukraine’s current President to increase nationalist tone. But everyone knows that to win Crimea back, Russia must be defeated in a total war.
4. The growing poverty plaguing the Ukrainian people is forcing the current President of Ukraine to draw public attention to another area of counter-quote.
That is why he shut down three Russian-speaking television networks by imposing sanctions on Oligarch Viktor Medvedev, a friend and ally of Vladimir Putin.
At the same time, the President of Ukraine does not make a hard fight against corruption, so that in this way winks at Russia, which has powerful friend-Russian oligarchs in Ukraine’s economic-political life, who finance all the political parties in the country.
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