Turkey-Ukraine want to close Bosporus Strait and Russia’s possible Response feared by Turkey
The Turkey-Ukraine alliance is changing the entire geopolitical situation in the Black Sea. Turkey is still trying to impose new conditions on defence and geopolitical sectors that are unfavourable to Russia.
The Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Turkish Straits (1936) grants Turkey full control of the Straits and guarantees freedom of navigation by civilian ships in peacetime. The above convention regulates navigation by guaranteeing Turkey’s sovereignty in the Straits.
Both Turkish Foreign and Defence Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu and Hulusi Akar respectively on a recent visit to Ukraine agreed with senior Ukrainian officials on Turkey’s intentions to continue to actively participate “in the protection of the rights of Crimean Tatars”, while helping to settle displaced persons, and to free Ukrainian citizens illegally detained (according to Ukrainians and Turks) in Crimea by Russia.
It is known that through the Bosporus and Dardanelles Straits, Russian warships and merchant ships pass from the Black Sea to the Aegean Archipelago to supply Russian forces in Syria, Libya and to participate in naval operations.
The blockade of the Bosporus Straits and the Dardanelles is part of his plans to make life easier for pro-Kurdish fighters in Syria.
After the neutralization of Russia, whose warships will not be able to cross the Straits, the territories of Northern Syria will remain under Turkish control for a long time, if not forever.
But if this is Turkey’s plan with Ukraine, Turkey has not considered Russia’s possible response that will take away 30% of Turkish territory while creating Great Armenia through these Turkish territories. More specifically, Russia’s possible response to such a case is the non-renewal of Russia’s signature with the simultaneous denunciation of the Treaty of Moscow or Treaty of Brotherhood (1921).
The specific Treaty was an agreement between the Grand National Assembly of Turkey (TBMM), under the leadership of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk and Russia under the leadership of Vladimir Lenin, signed on 16 March 1921. Under the Article II, Turkey ceded Batum and the Adjacent area north of the village of Sarp to Soviet Georgia (the Kars Oblast went to Turkey).
According to the then Treaty of Moscow (1921), the then newly formed USSR would voluntarily withdraw it from the area of Kars Oblast, Arahant, Ararat Mountain in favour of Turkey. Russia would make this Treaty in writing every twenty-five years. For many years to date nothing has been said about the re-signing and renewal of this Treaty, which Russia, if it legally refuses, then Turkey will have to return the vast territory it holds!
Of course, Turkey is unlikely to accept this and return these territories, but at the same time Russia will have the right not to recognize the Montreux Treaty and at the same time it will appear globally that Turkey does not respect the International Conventions, taking away its right to be vindicated in any future referral to an International Court of Justice.
So, if Russia is excluded from the Straits and the Marmara Sea, Russia will most likely use the non-renewal of the Moscow Treaty. The specific territories designated as part of Turkish territory are deserted without any modern infrastructure being created, because Turkey has always believed that these territories may at some point be returned, which is why it did not invest or try to attract investors.
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