USA vs Iran: The Shadow of Terror covers the Middle East Again

At the dawn of 2020, the US and Iran for the first time were involved in real fire using the national territory of Iraq as a battlefield and geo-strategic chessboard, leaving behind the secret war that was held between them so far in the entire Middle East.

The extermination in Baghdad by the United States of Iran’s most charismatic and powerful military leader, Major General Qassem Suleimani, sparked the wick of the Middle East’s flammable powder keg.

by Thanos S. Chonthrogiannis

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World Map indicating locations of Iran and United States
Photo by Bazonka, Source: File: BlankMap-World6, compact.svg
licensed Public Domain

Who was the mighty Iranian major General and what is the Al-Quds” which he was commanded

The Iranian major General Qassem Suleimani was the commander of «Quds Force» from 1998 until his death and was the hero of the whole Shiite world and of course Iran.

The “Quds Force» would take operations of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) abroad, while the American magazine “New Yorker” in 2014 compared the unit Al-Quds, in terms of its operation and action, with the U.S.  secret service and Israel namely the CIA and Mossad respectively.

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is the elite Corps of Iranian armed forces. Founded   in 1979 by Sayyid Ruhollah Moussavi Khomeini also known in Western World as Ayatollah Khomeini.  Its structure (IRGC) comprises five branches:

  1. Army forces
  2. Navy forces
  3. Aviation forces
  4. Bashiz Militia
  5. Al-Quds Forces

According to Amnesty International, the Iranian pro-governmental Civil Guard Bashiz is a volunteer paramilitary force (operating as Soviet party members in the USSR operated to control the interior of the USSR by dissidents to the Soviet regime) and used to contribute to the observance of law and order in order to suppress any disagreements and riots in any way.

On the other hand, the force “Al-Quds” is intended to conduct conventional war operations abroad and collect information. It supports with weaponry and education/training paramilitary organizations in many countries, such as Hezbollah (Lebanon), Hamas (Gaza Strip and West Bank), Houthi (Yemen), Shiite militia (Iraq) and Taliban (Afghanistan).

The US considers the Force Al-Quds, with the previously head of Major General Qassem Suleimani responsible for:

1. The bombing of the US Embassy in Beirut (Lebanon) by a suicide bomber left behind 63 dead of which 17 were American citizens (April 18, 1983).

2. Bombing with explosive trapped trucks in the US and French camps in Beirut (Lebanon) that constituted the Multinational Force in Lebanon leaving behind the dead 58 French paratroopers of the Battalion RCP and 241 US Marines and 21 American citizens (October 23, 1983).

3. Explosion of a car trapped in the American Embassy in Eastern Beirut (Lebanon) leaving behind 16 dead (September 20, 1984).

4. For the attacks in recent attacks in Saudi Arabia (2019) and the substitution of U.S. power in the Middle East by Iran.

Αποτέλεσμα εικόνας για κασέμ σολεϊμανί
The Iranian major General Qassem Suleimani and Commander of Al-Quds Force
photo by site pronews.gr

Why did this Iranian major general be eliminated from the United States?

Iranian Major General Qassem Suleimani, in addition to all others, would be a candidate for the Presidential elections to be held in Iran in 2021. His confident prevalence would have suppressed any moderate voices in Iran with the full prevalence of hardline voices and creating an increasingly aggressive strategy against the US and their allies in the region.

Major General Qassem Suleimani controlled Iranian influence throughout the Middle East, roll governments in Iraq, supported the Assad government in Syria, handled Iran’s relations and support for Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthi and Taliban. It was he who created the new “Iranian Empire” in the Middle East as a new Persian King Xerxes of the ancient Persian Empire.

The U.S. Congress based on the information leaked in the press had not been informed of this move. But surely its extermination is a very resonant energy with deterrent content against those who attempt to challenge the American supremacy and power in the Middle East in recent periods.

At the same time, fear and terror is being achieved for what is ahead to anyone questioning the power of the US and the countries belonging to the US and Western camps in general and trying to pursue their own independent policy (e.g. Turkey).

The failure of US policy in Iraq

Seventeen consecutive years since the last US invasion of Iraq and after the fall of Saddam Hussein, the US has failed to turn Iraq into a model Middle East Republic that harmoniously integrates the Western constitutional governance as governance model with Arab culture and Islam.

Iraq remains immersed in chaos. In 2019 more than 500 people died and more than 21000 were injured, claiming better living conditions against the corruption of all kinds of elites (economic, political, state, etc.).

In 2018 the then Iraqi government tried failing to push for a resolution to the Iraqi Parliament a bill aimed at withdrawing US soldiers from the territory of Iraq.

Perhaps this realization of the US military operation against a foreign official (Qassem Suleimani) in Baghdad violating in this way the Iraqi national domination, the voices last week multiplied and brought the concrete bill to a vote.

Iraq in Iran’s sphere of influence

US President Donald Trump’s decision to impose harsh sanctions on Iran, most likely forced Iran to strengthen its variously ties with Iraq, Turkey and Russia. Iran is increasingly involved in Iraq’s political, economic and commercial life and while controlling Iraq’s security areas. At the same time, the largest consumption of the Iraqi population in gas and electricity is being fueled by Iran.

In addition, Donald Trump’s decision to unilaterally withdraw the USA (2018) from the international agreement on Iran’s nuclear programmed Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action-(JCPOA), provoked and highlighted hardliners in the political, economic and military scene of both Iran and Iraq.

From the protests of Iranian citizens against the economic policies of the Iranian government we have today reached the point that the Iranians and Iraqis are burning American flags in front of the US Embassy in Baghdad (Iraq, December 21, 2019) screaming “Death to America.”

Αποτέλεσμα εικόνας για σημαια του πολεμου ιραν
The Iranian Flag of War was raised after the death of their Beloved Major General
photo by site www.gazzeta.gr

The short and long-term consequences of the extermination of Qassem Suleimani

The short-term consequences are the rise in oil prices due to Iran’s potential retaliation to the US allies in the Middle East (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Israel) and the indirect military blockade of the Persian Gulf from its straits in Oman that will drastically increase the risk of crossing tankers. But the price of oil very quickly will correct in its normal levels (for more information on this subject please read the analysis titled “How will move the Oil Prices for the New Year“).

The American soldiers in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain and Turkey will be in direct sight of retaliation by the Iranian force “Al-Quds” acting abroad and by the supporters of the paramilitary mechanisms and organisations such as Hezbollah, Hamas, Shiite militias of Iraq, etc.

The long-term consequences generally include all American interests and US citizens in Europe who will also be under the radar of Iran and lone wolves moving against the United States interests.

Major security issues are raised in Europe and in the Western countries in general, which will require greater enforcement of restrictive measures on the freedom and personal data of citizens.

After the extermination of Iranian major General Qassem Suleimani, Iran was very much struck by the great influence it had on the whole of the Middle East. His successor does not have the charisma of his predecessor, so it is late to restore things as they were. Iran has tried to mitigate the damage by immediately replacing the deceased.

The gap that is currently being created in the Middle East and until Iran comes back favours Turkey, which is anxious to become the protector of the everywhere Muslims of the Middle East and not just them.

Turkey will endeavor to associate in a variety of ways (financial, political, military, etc.) into its sphere of influence all these paramilitary and Iranian networks operating in Syria, Lebanon, Gaza Strip and Western Bank in order to exert even more pressure (along with Russia) on USA and Israeli interests in the Middle East.

Iraq is a very difficult case for Turkey because it is the Iraqi Kurdish populations and Iran has a great deal of influence in Iraq.

The US and their allies will have to prevent in any way the support and stronger influence of Turkey in the Middle East, which will now try to substitute Iran by following similar methods with the Force ‘Al-Quds’.

Unless President Trump has promised Turkey’s President in return for Turkey’s unlimited intervention in the Middle East in order Turkey to remain in the West camp, thereby stopping Turkey from eyeing Russia.

Potential targets-Iran retaliation

Iran’s retaliation for the extermination of Major General Qassem Suleimani will focus on a similar resounding and yet highly communicative blow to the US and their allies in the region.

The purpose of these retaliatory and if achieved will be to prove to Iran that it can and does directly hit the most valuable “strategic players” on the geopolitical chessboard and as was the case for Iran by major general Qassem Suleimani.

In this case Iran will try to hit the heads of the US secret services and their respective allied countries in the Middle East and generally all those who have a corresponding size for their countries like the one they had for Iran this particular Iranian major general.

The US had taken care to remind the Middle East of their ability to perform surgical strikes when wiped out by bombing in Syria in October 2019, the leader of the Islamic State of Abu Bark al-Baghdadi. This was purely a symbolic action from the US and since Abu Bark al-Baghdadi’s organization, Islamic State, had been “dissolved” long ago.

They simply did the same thing with the Iranian major General Qassem Suleimani. But this time this    action was not symbolic but caused a tectonic earthquake in the geopolitical chessboard of the Middle East, effectively weakening Iran and its influence, and its objectives were to substitute US power in the region.

At the same time, US President Donald Trump through the last hit will additionally be able to rally his electoral base even further ahead of the US Presidential elections in November 2020.

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