The Policy that the US will have to implement following the violent questioning of the Iranian Regime

The Iranian regime has recently used fierce brutality to suppress the uprisings of its indignant citizens. Anecdotal evidence published in the international press reported dead numbers ranging from 100 to 200, thousands wounded and arrested respectively. Indeed, the theocratic regime in Iran was not confined to the application of wild pogroms but blamed the revolutionary citizens as ‘hooligans’.

As is always the case the authoritarian regimes for any protests occurring in their countries attribute (blame) them to a foreign finger and generally to the external enemies of their country.

by Thanos S. Chonthrogiannis

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Blank Map Iran with waterbodies
Photo by Siamax, licensed Public Domain

The cause and the beginnings of intense protests

The decision taken by the Iranian government to impose restrictions on the use of the oil market (60 liters a month per driver) with the simultaneous increase in fuel prices by 50% was the fuse that broke and led to citizens ‘ protests.

We will briefly mention that the protests began in a small town in Iran (Shiraz) where protesters attempted to fire a fuel depot while the police then intercepted them. From that point on, the demonstrations took on a massive nature and spread throughout the territory of Iran and mainly in the capital of Tehran.

After ten days of brutal violence, the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution (Sepah) and military elite of the theocratic regime issued a statement that they arrested the leaders of the counterinsurgency.

The harsh everyday life for the citizens of Iran

Iran’s economic data indicate the grim everyday lives of Iranian citizens. The official inflation rate for the whole of 2019 was moved close to 40%, the national currency has lost its value, the prices of meat and poultry have risen by 60%, dairy products by 40% and vegetables by 50% respectively.

The Iranian government’s decision to limit fuel and increase their price was not accidental but forced and aimed at increasing state revenues as the unfavourable economic elements of Iran’s economy are purely a consequence of the US sanctions that caused the collapse of Iranian oil exports, affecting the heart of Iran’s economy and soaring the prices of basic essentials.

The US policy to date

All these developments justify the policy of incumbent US President Donald Trump against Iran. In fact, Iran has failed to circumvent the imposed US sanctions trader with the other countries that supported and continue to support the theocratic regime, such as China.

At the same time, these developments are a geopolitical defeat for China because it turns out that its economic and political influence is not so strong that it can support Iran’s economy by substituting Iran’s trade with all the countries before 2015.

Moreover, the example of Iran that has come to this difficult economic and social situation, respectively, could be used as a paradigm by the US President and Congress respectively towards Turkey and the Turkish regime of President Erdogan, which Turkey is continually questioning the NATO Alliance and being autonomous in the Alliance’s political lines, closely cooperating with Iran and Russia.

These developments are, therefore, a justification for the US policies on Iran.

The future US policy against Iran and the Gulf Region in general

From history we know that authoritarian regimes are commonplace when they are at risk of losing their power to react in a convulsant attempt to decompress the social pressure that exists within the country either dissing public opinion with false/fake news and exerting violent repression or triggering a war conflict with an “available” external enemy to rally the people around them.

Since Iran is politically and militarily controlling Iraq, part of Syria, the Lebanese government, it is supporting the Yemeni rebels, etc. trying in this way to increase its influence and cancelling at the same time US policy in the Middle East (more details on this topic please read the analysis «The Risk Widespread Conflict in the Middle East to cancel US Policy in the Region»), there are chances  that  Iran’s  regime  will make  the  strategic  mistake  of  provoking and implementing  a small – scale  and  controlled  military  action  against   an external  enemy,  with aim   to  rally  the  people  around  him.

If Iran makes such a strategic mistake both the US and their allies should be determined to provoke the opposite effects that Iran would expect from such a strategy. In other words, if Iran causes a small-scale war episode then the reaction should be such that a partial loss of its territorial integrity could be caused in Iran.

If the Iranian regime in such a conflict appears to have lost Iranian territory the loss of Iranian territory would cause the country’s unconditional surrender, the regime would collapse from the inside and be forced to get out of the country by changing the political fate and history of Iran.

Since Iran does not carry out such a controlled conflict, the US sanctions policy should continue, but at the same time the United States should also pursue a policy of ‘charm’ towards the Iranian regime.

In other words, the US should promise the Iranian regime that if it fully implements the liberalisation of society measures (i.e. free and full access to the Internet, open information, open rallies without measures of suppression etc.) and to organize of free elections in Iran which will take part in international observers, will then be allowed to trade oil with the other countries gradually and according to the implementation of the measures. In other words, a priority should not be the exchange of commercial transactions with a quantity of enriched uranium, but the implementation of liberalisation measures by Iranian society.

The aim of the US sanctions on the Iranian oil market may be to halt Iran’s trend to increase the use of enriched uranium, but the pressure to implement the full liberalisation of Iranian society should be priority because only these measures will cause a rise in the movement of disgruntled citizens who will be demanding a change in the political situation in the country. In such a case, the theocratic regime of Iran will be forced to negotiate its escape from the country by releasing it.

In such a scenario it will collapse from within as a paper tower and the strong influence that Iran has achieved in the broader Middle East region.

If this is not the case, the Iranian regime will continue to control its citizens in power and each time will negotiate how much enriched uranium it will use in exchange for reducing its imposed sanctions on oil market while retaining its presence in power.

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