EU: Preparing for the scenario of the return of the Republicans to the White House

The US election may still be a long way off, but European Union officials are already preparing for a possible change in US leadership and trying to achieve as much cooperation as possible until then.

An EU official stated that “there is unprecedented close cooperation and coordination between the EU and the current US administration”. He added that “the EU knows that this [cooperation] is not a given and such an approach can change when someone like Trump is in the White House again. And the EU is trying to use its momentum to promote issues of common interest.”

They run to catch up

The EU expressed its excitement when Joe Biden was elected in 2020, after four years under Trump’s presidency, during which the transatlantic relationship reached an all-time low.

The two sides had different views at least on trade, defense and technology, but also on a number of other issues.

Relations changed drastically with the election of Biden. The US and the EU had many common views, such as how to deal with the pandemic, but also climate change. The rapprochement became even clearer with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with European leaders welcoming economic and military support from the world’s largest economy.

What worries the EU?

But that mood is likely to change if there is a new president in the White House. Europeans are concerned that with a Republican President, the US will withdraw economic and military support [to Ukraine].”

Speaking on CNN earlier this month, Trump did not answer a question about which of the two belligerent countries he wants to win the war and did not pledge to support Kiev if he is re-elected. However, he maintained that the conflict would end within 24 hours if he was in charge again.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSandis, who is expected to launch his 2024 presidential campaign later this month, is of the view that the US should not get further involved in Ukraine.

The transatlantic partnership remains essential for the EU

However, the same source added that the relationship may be slightly different in the future anyway, as Europe appears to be less dependent on other countries – including both China and the US.

The EU is developing its own path to strategic autonomy, which does not mean turning its back on its allies. Rather, it means that Europeans need to be more competent to make their own choices, and that will continue regardless of who is in the White House.

On the other hand, in the EU they realize that whoever the next American president is, it is understood that he will prioritize the interests of the USA, which often do not match those of Europe. It is indicative that, despite the close relationship with the EU, the Biden administration introduced unprecedented green subsidies that threatened the European economy. Also, the US deflation law caused concern in Europe.

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