At the recent EU leaders’ summit, the surprise was not the decision to freeze EU accession talks with the countries of the Western Balkans-Albania and North Macedonia-a development that was expected, but Germany’s stance and particularly the stance of Chancellor Angela Merkel. Diplomatic sources say Chancellor Merkel does not seem to have given a major contest to change the summit’s decision or at least leave the window open to the countries concerned accession negotiations.
by Thanos S. Chonthrogiannis
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Quite possibly a main reason for this stance by Chancellor Merkel is due as a result of the internal conflict between the two geopolitical spheres of influence that is taking place within the EU. More on this topic read the analysis titled “The future of the EU without the UK and the consequences”.
But another possible reason for Chancellor Merkel’s stance was to base in
the political transition phase that is taking place in Germany, creating signs
of introversion in this great economic and political superpower of the EU.
The political transition
Chancellor Angela Merkel going through in the 14th year as
Chancellor of Germany showing strong signs of political fatigue. Perhaps
Chancellor Merkel is the most successful politician in contemporary history not
only in Germany but of the whole of Europe. Its popularity continues to be
maintained at high rates (55%) and even though she will not claim her
reelection in the 2021 federal elections.
She has already retired from the leadership of the Christian Democratic
Party, replacing Annegret Krab-Karrenbauer, but has not yet gained the trust of
the Germans. This is confirmed by the fact that the Christian Democratic Party
is increasing the reviews against it by requesting its replacement with the
choice of another chancellor in the 2021 federal elections.
The problem lies in the fact that the Christian Democratic Party has not so
far managed to recover the percentages lost in 2016 when Chancellor Merkel
instructed to open Germany’s borders to refugees and migrants from Syria. A very good policy that prevented the creation of a humanitarian crisis which did not see it with a good eye an important part of both the electorate and the voters of the Christian Democrats.
The losses of the Christian Democrats lie mainly in younger ages which are
highly sensitive to the issue of climate change and combined that the Christian
Democrats cannot present a convincing agenda for the protection of the
environment create the conditions for transferring electoral new voters to the
Green Party that came second in the May EU elections.
The Social Democrats’ party is going through even more difficult days
because the looting of its voters is even greater, reaching the Party to show
percentages of order 15%.
The Social Democrats’ party is going through even more difficult days because the looting of its voters is even greater, reaching the Party to show percentages of order 15%.
At the same time, the Alternative fur Deutschland (AFD) which has strong percentages in the East German Länder, making the opposition in the Federal Parliament because the German citizens in these regions are convinced that the Federal government does not do many things to reduce the gap between West and East Germany.
This is the wrong conviction of in voters because the salary gap has
reached relatively low levels, but they just need other types of policies to be
implemented, see analysis entitled «Policies to address the rise of the German Extreme right-wing».
The high percentages of the Green parties in Europe such as France
(European elections) and Austria (Parliamentary elections in October) create a
great dynamic for the Green Party in Germany.
If the Austrian Christian Democratic Party (Die neue Volkspartei) comes to an
agreement with the Green Party of Austria with aim to create a cooperation
government, it will significantly influence the political developments in
Germany, forcing the Christian Democrats and the Greens of Germany to cooperate
in a cooperation government in the future.
The percentages of the Christian Democrats are moving around 30%, the
corresponding Social Democrats’ figures at 15%, while the Liberals have low
rates. The rising political power of Germany is the Green Party. As Germany’s
political map presents this fragmentation it is very difficult for Chancellor
Merkel to take effective and highly dynamic policies at EU level.
If any policy is misinterpreted by the German electorate and as it was with
the immigration-refugee problem in 2016 then the Christian Democrats are in
danger of seeing even lower percentages in the elections.
This is why Chancellor Merkel has put Germany’s policy in the EU on
autopilot, hoping that by the 2021 elections it will not disrupt the balance of
Germany’s political scene by avoiding its party leading to even lower
percentages by creating a dynamic reduction in its percentages until the 2021
At the same time, the US introversion and Germany’s rapprochement with
Russia making and the second gas pipeline from Russia to Germany, creates even
greater turbulence and a gap between the US and Germany reflecting and in EU
Decisions concerning Iran’s nuclear program, Turkey’s blackmail using the refugee-migration problem to blackmail the EU, support the Turkish government despite Turkey’s conflict with the US, non-mission German Troops in Syria and the adoption or not of the 5G networks of Chinese Huawei in Germany and in the EU.
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