How the melting of the ice can increase both the GDP and the Geopolitical risks of Canada
The rise of the sea temperature due to global warming and the gradual
melting of ice in the Arctic will enable them to transform into much milder the
extreme prevailing and settled hostile to human survival conditions that
prevail at the North Pole making the Arctic more easily habitable to
At the same time the northern icy ocean will be all navigable for the
merchant ships, changing them to date for centuries of well-known sea trade
shipping routes and corridors respectively which existed from the time of Vasco
de Gama and until today.
By Thanos S. Chonthrogiannis
It is prohibited by intellectual property law or in any
way illegal use of this article, with heavy civil and criminal penalties for
These new under configuration marine trade corridors from Europe to Asia and North America equally and vice versa will no longer have to make the circle of Africa or pass through the Mediterranean Sea and the canal of Suez.
For the first time the frozen ports, for the longest period of time,
Murmansk and Siberia (Russia), Churchill (Canada) will be readily accessible
from the merchant ships of both the northern European countries, and North
America as well as Russia, China and Japan, drastically reducing the distance
between them (more details on future geopolitical
developments at Global
level due to Climate
change please read the
analysis «Future Global Geopolitical
Development due to accelerated Climate change», category: social, published on 05 September, 2019).
The economic and development benefits for Canada
Canada is one of the countries that will benefit greatly from climate
change. As global warming continues and the melting of the ice is accelerating,
the more access from the sea and the time of sea accessibility during the year
to the Canadian Arctic part will be increased. This means an increase in trade by sea and a greater
volume of cargo transport to and from North America (Canada) through the North
In order Canada to get the most out of these developments, the Canadian
government should prepare a large public investment package to create the right
infrastructure for both existing ports and airports (for the transport of
highly sensitive products from the air) as to the reconstruction of any road
network and why not a rail network if the temperature will not fall below -15
degrees Celsius during the year (if the
temperature decreases to
-30 and -40
degrees Celsius and
as it was done until today
then the rail
network is distorted and breaks).
Then the Canadian government have to give strong incentives to populate the
Canadian Arctic part, gradually creating new cities that will absorb for
permanent habitation and establishment all those citizens and their families
who work in the sectors of transport of sea products, winter and alternative tourism,
fishing, extraction of rare earth and hydrocarbons, in the construction sector,
in the energy sector, etc.
These incentives should be in the form of tax exemptions for a specified
period, accompanied by zero and/or negative interest rate loans (basically we
refer to loans with subsidized lending rate) for the development and
acquisition of housing and creating businesses in those areas. To date all
businesses operating in the Canadian arctic part contribute less than 2.35% in
Canada’s annual GDP.
A public investment package of around $35 billion (USD) can eject the
annual growth rate of Canadian GDP to 5%-6% for at least a decade, while the
existing annual GDP will increase by 20%.
This means a drastic reduction in unemployment, an increase in the rate of acceptance of migrants from all over the world (due to increased labour demand) in order to rapidly populate the Arctic part belonging to Canada, increase in social security contributions to Canadian social security funds, and of course a drastic increase in revenues in the Canadian state’s coffers.
The geopolitical dangers that will face Canada
But the drastic reduction of ice and the ever-increasing period of
permanent residence in the Arctic part of Canada creates parallel and increased
geopolitical risks for Canada.
Given Russia’s strong interest in controlling the Arctic is constantly
increasing in the future the chances of Canada accepting in its Arctic part
airborne initially military invasion by the Arctic, which Arctic will be
controlled by Russia and without the Russian troops having to go through the
state of Alaska belonging to the United States.
To date, the extreme cold conditions and Arctic ice covering land and sea
were the insurmountable obstacle that protected Canada from any invasion by the
North Pole. With Climate change and the accelerated melting of the arctic ice,
this insurmountable natural obstacle that protected Canada gradually ceases to
This means that the drastic increase in the density of the Canadian
population in the Canadian Arctic part is judged to be immediately enforced so
that large population densities/masses can be subjected to move and support
both in provision of human resources and in terms of logistics in the first
instance the armed forces of Canada in the event of an invasion by the Arctic.
Canada may be covered defensively by NATO and the USA but that does not
mean that everything should be left to complacency, given that the US is
increasingly turning their attention to China.
In this case Canada will have to drastically increase its defense spending
and mainly spending on R&D in the
military-defense sector with great
emphasis being given to its domestic defense industry to maximize at the same time the benefits to its
economy and the further development of its GDP, achieving and exporting to
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